Monday, August 28, 2006

GOLDSEEK RADIO: Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek

August 26 th

Show Highlights:

  • In the first half, Bob Chapman explains why he expects a 30-40% decline in the housing market. Bob remains bullish on the precious metals sector and expects a powerful rally to unfold in the coming months. He thinks 2009 could mark the beginning of the end for the stock market. He tells the listeners when to expect the Fed. to stop inflating the dollar and the resulting economic collapse. Next, Gary Kaltbaum examines the charts with an electron microscope. Gary continues to be impressed with the bond market but is skeptical with regard to stocks. Plus, Jack Chan delves further into the COT data and shares his trading techniques.
  • In the second half, legendary market timer, and investor, Arch Crawford will entertain and delight you with his novel trading approach and market experiences. Arch predicted the ominous 1987 crash almost 20 years ago. He sees a similar scenario leading up to another 1987 style crash. The market wizard is concerned by the convergence between the 4 year and 8 year cycle lows which could culminate with a monstrous decline. Arch opens his market play book and reveals when to expect the impending crash. Next, he tells the listeners to prepare for an incredible buying opportunity in the gold market. Arch believes that precious metals will soar to record heights in the next 12 months and which could develop into a $5,000-$10,000 peak in the years ahead. Also, he shares his most proprietary technical indicators and explains why they work. Arch is an energy bull and thinks that crude oil will rocket higher by as much as 200%.

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Arch Crawford cut his technical analysis teeth as first assistant to top Wall Street technician Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch in the early 1960s. In 1977, following Arch’s extensive research into astrophysical phenomenon, astrology and its correlation to market performance, he edited and published the premiere issue of Crawford Perspectives market timing newsletter.

Today, nearly 30 years later, Crawford Perspectives continues to bring readers one of the most highly regarded and consistently accurate market timing newsletters available.

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Sunday, August 27, 2006

The Gold and Silver Review, Aug. 27th: 185th Edition

THE GOLD AND SILVER REVIEW
August 27th, 2006
185th Edition
www.radio.goldseek.com
Chris G. Waltzek
_____________________________________
MARKET SUMMARY
*$621 Gold - $12.33 Silver*





















PRECIOUS METALS


Gold bolted higher on Monday only to succumb to sluggish mid-week trading due to conflicting Fed officials statements over the economy and a firmer dollar. However, lackluster trading gave way to renewed buying interest on Friday, as tropical storm Ernesto bolstered oil prices, reviving the gold market.

The yellow metal advanced $10 finishing at $621, while silver climbed $.36 closing at $12.33. For the year so far, the metals remain the investing sector of choice. Prices have soared 16 percent since rebounding from a two-month low point of $546.40 set on June 14th. Gold is up a stellar $100, a 25 percent gain - while silver has tacked on a $3.00 profit, more than a 30% increase.

The National Hurricane Center warned on Friday afternoon of the Caribbean Tropical Storm Ernesto's potential as this years first Gulf Coast hurricane. Ernesto moved toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and is expected to reach Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the weekend, bringing only heavy rains to the area. Traders bid up crude oil in after hours trading due to concerns over the crude oil producing Gulf Coast facilities, sending prices near $74 per barrel. This year, the Gulf states remain unharmed by the hurricane season.
A managing partner with Gold Arrow Capital Management, noted that gold could rise to as high as $850 to $900 in the months ahead because of seasonal factors and Middle Eastern tensions. he expects a rally in September and October due to pre-Christmas demand and related holidays, according to media sources. He added that silver could launch higher if the silver ETF acquires more of the precious metal to meet investor demand and silver could rise above $15 and climb as high as $25 an ounce should physical supply become scarce.

In related gold news, a GFMS report on Wednesday indicated an increase in demand for gold by almost twenty percent in the second quarter to 130 metric tons. Furthermore, gold jewelry demand climbed 12% during the same period.

Moreover, the new trend of lowered central bank gold sales continues to encourage gold and silver investors. Central banks failed to liquidate their predetermined gold reserves, according to Virtual Metals Research and Consulting. Up until next month, 500 tons of gold sales was permitted, however, only 331 tons were sold. The report indicates that not only will central banks fail to fulfill the alloted quota, but that assumptions regarding lowered future sales will result.

Adding support to the gold price, the article noted that in the past six months, big gold producers have reduced forward sales commitments, by the largest quarterly decline in Virtual Metals records. Mr. Turner noted the significance of increased de-hedging was related to lowered supply and thus increased demand and price. Leading the pack were Barrick Gold, AngloGold Ashanti and Newcrest which resulted in more than eighty percent of the de-hedging.

Meanwhile, despite a firmer dollar, investors shifted to gold's safe haven on this weeks bigger-than-expected decline in existing home sales data. A Commerce Department report showed a 4.3 percent slide in new home purchases, the largest decline in months just as a National Association of Realtors study indicated a big drop in pre-owned homes. The promise of slower economic growth was encouraging to gold investors, since the Fed. is viewed as likely to raise rates at the upcoming September 20th FOMC meeting.

In geopolitical news, Lebanon insisted that the United States force Israel to end its air and naval blockade, in place since the onset of the 34 day Israeli - Hezbollah war. The Prime Minister of Lebanon pleaded for an increase in financial aid as a result of billions of dollars worth of war related damages. Lebanese troops joined forces with U.N. Peace-keepers to dissolve Hizbollah strongholds while Israeli forces returned home. The tenuous week-long ceasefire between the two nations concerned German Chancellor Angela Merkel who referred to the situation as "very fragile."

In related Middle East news, Iran requested that the U.S. lift its sanctions regarding Tehran's nuclear enrichment program, according to media sources. Iran claims its atomic ambitions are geared toward electrical power for its populace. However, the West remains skeptical and insists that Iran intends to use its new technology towards nefarious ends. U.S. and French authorities noted that Iran has failed to completely halt its nuclear program despite proposed incentives. A top Iran leader said the Islamic Republic would continue its nuclear program and thus ignore UN demands. The world's fourth-largest oil exporter, must comply by August 31st to the UN's demands or face further economic sanctions.

Moving on to the Federal Reserve news desk, a hawkish statement from a Fed. official lead to dollar strength and gold market volatility. Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow warned investors of the threat of higher rates. Although the Fed. is expected to continue its neutral stance on rates at the September 20th FOMC meeting, increased inflation fears could lead to a push above the current 5.25% federal funds rate.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned against protectionist measures that would crimp global expansion at an economics conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The Fed. chairman gave his speech on the heels of recent inconclusive trade talks between the US and China. The United States accumulated its 4th consecutive annual record trade deficit amounting to $716 billion last year, with more than a $200 billion trade deficit with China alone.
Bernanke noted: "Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic integration and may do so even more in the future,"

In numismatic news this week, The Bank of Jamaica announced a set of commemorative coins in Bob Marley's likeness comprised of gold and silver. The coins celebrate the late legendary musicians' 60th birthday in 2005. The British Royal Mint will sell the coins at 100 dollars a piece. Marley passed in 1981 and remains Jamaica's most prominent national hero.

Soaring gold prices and difficult economic times are leading many to search for unwanted items for sale. Sources indicate that sellers can expect as high as 80% of the gold content in the transaction. However, if the jewelry has poor craftmanship, items may bring no more than half their retail sale price. Caveat Venditor, let the seller beware. And in related news, a group which backs the continued usage of the Lincoln US penny, Americans for Common Cents released a survey indicating that more than 2 out of 3 Americans polled favored continued circulation of the one cent piece. Sources indicate that the loss of the Lincoln penny would lead to price rounding which typically leads to slightly higher prices and add a small amount of fuel to inflation. One Penn State study by Dr. Lombra showed that the move could cost consumers more than half a billion dollars each year, with more than half of daily transactions increasing in price as a result.

Here's a review of the Gold Stocks & Precious metals charts. The following section is included to help investors identify low risk, short term entries for long term precious metals positions. Although the analysis may indicate a somewhat bearish stance at times, I expect gold to breach $1000 dollars in the next few years and silver to eclipse $20 per ounce.

Gold stocks moved higher this week as forecast in last weeks commentary. The bullish candlestick pattern lead to early strength which subsided somewhat by Friday. Looking ahead to next weeks trading: the daily and weekly candlesticks are almost identical as of Friday's close. Long upper wicks often lead to a lower bias. Also, the XAU left a large unfilled gap between Friday's close and Monday's open. I expect next week to bring continued choppy trading within the well defined range in the daily chart.

Shifting over to the gold and silver charts: Last week the charts indicated that precious metals would move higher within their trading ranges. Gold and silver both cooperated this week posting higher closes. The charts are less cooperative this week. Gold and silver both posted marginally positive closes on Friday. However, the weekly charts are offering few clues. Watch the trading ranges for potential direction.

Shifting over to the stock markets

In equities news, the major indexes parred last weeks explosive gains. Investors were discouraged by a hawkish Fed statement and by reports of a weakening housing sector. The Dow Jones and the S&P underwent an orderly retreat. The Dow closed at 11,284 giving back about 100 points. Meanwhile, the S&P finished at 1,295, off 7 and the Nasdaq at 2,140, down by 23 points. Last week I suggested that a normal reaction to such a powerful move was due. Right on cue the markets pulled back. For next week, I'm somewhat skeptical regarding this weeks charts, however, there appears to be some upside potential early on next week evident in the daily and weekly candlesticks. The only other scenario that seems plausible would be a continued consolidation.




August 27th Goldseek Radio Highlights:

*Arch Crawford*

In the second half, legendary market timer, and investor, Arch Crawford will entertain and delight you with his novel trading approach and market experiences. Arch predicted the ominous 1987 crash almost 20 years ago. He sees similar patterns setting up to another 1987 style crash scenario. The market wizard is concerned by a convergence between the 4 year and 8 year cycle lows which could precipitate into a monstrous decline. Arch opens his market playbook and reveals when to expect the impending crash. Next, he tells the listeners to prepare for an incredible buying opportunity in the gold market. Arch believes that precious metals will soar to record heights in the next 12 months and could ultimately culminate in a $5,000-$10,000 peak in the years ahead. Also, he shares his most proprietary technical indicators and explains why they work. He is also an energy bull and thinks that crude oil will rocket higher by as much as 200%. Don't forget to bookmark commentary.goldseek.com for your daily source of cutting edge precious metals news and commentary.



To This Weeks Guests and the Trading Wizards Gold & Silver Forecasts, Please Go To:

http://www.radio.goldseek.com


Thanks for reading.

Chris Waltzek
cwaltzek@comcast.net
Please visit my blog and web site for free daily market articles, audio broadcasts and analysis.
Click Here. http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/
or radio.goldseek.com
and for the entire 4 year archives, click here:

Market Weatherman: August 26th Video Report



The Gold and Silver Review at GoldSeek.com Presents:

THE MARKET WEATHERMAN, Video FORMAT!

For Streaming Video, Click Here!

Download The Video, Click Here!


Archived Shows:
Richard Russell, Ron Brown & Trading Wizards - June 03, 2006
Jason Hommel, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 27, 2006
Tom Udall, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 20, 2006
Bill Murphy & Michael Covel - May 13, 2006
Jim Sinclair - May 06, 2006
Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - April 28, 2006
Catherine Austin Fitts - April 22, 2006
Mark Leibovit - April 15, 2006
Addison Wiggin - April 8, 2006
Dr. Ron Paul - April 1, 2006
Bob Chapman - March 25, 2006
Dr. Marc Faber - March 18, 2006
John Rubion & David Coffin - March 11, 2006
Julian Phillips & Gary Kaltbaum - March 4, 2006
Steve Forbes & Dr. Van K. Tharp - February 25, 2006
Bob Chapman & Jack Chan - February 18, 2006
Jim Willie, Roland Watson & David Morgan - February 11, 2006
David Morgan
Jim Rogers
James Turk
Dr. Marc Faber
Bill Murphy

Market Weatherman: August 19th Video Report



The Gold and Silver Review at GoldSeek.com Presents:

THE MARKET WEATHERMAN, Video FORMAT!

For Streaming Video, Click Here!

Download The Video, Click Here!


Archived Shows:
Richard Russell, Ron Brown & Trading Wizards - June 03, 2006
Jason Hommel, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 27, 2006
Tom Udall, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 20, 2006
Bill Murphy & Michael Covel - May 13, 2006
Jim Sinclair - May 06, 2006
Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - April 28, 2006
Catherine Austin Fitts - April 22, 2006
Mark Leibovit - April 15, 2006
Addison Wiggin - April 8, 2006
Dr. Ron Paul - April 1, 2006
Bob Chapman - March 25, 2006
Dr. Marc Faber - March 18, 2006
John Rubion & David Coffin - March 11, 2006
Julian Phillips & Gary Kaltbaum - March 4, 2006
Steve Forbes & Dr. Van K. Tharp - February 25, 2006
Bob Chapman & Jack Chan - February 18, 2006
Jim Willie, Roland Watson & David Morgan - February 11, 2006
David Morgan
Jim Rogers
James Turk
Dr. Marc Faber
Bill Murphy

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

GOLDSEEK RADIO: Peter Schiff, Justice Litle & Chris Waltzek

August 19th

Show Highlights:

  • In the first hour, the Goldwizards return. Jack Chan is bullish on the bond market and continues to think that we've seen the top in energy related investments. Gary Kaltbaum also likes bonds and turns cautiously optimistic on the stock market. Lastly, Bob Chapman and I discuss the markets and this weeks articles of interest.
  • In the second hour, Peter Schiff from Euro Pacific Capital, tells us why he expects gold to soar to $5,000-$10,000 in the years ahead. He also discusses how various electronic forms of gold may be implemented to help insulate the economy from the declining dollar. Next, Justice Litle joins me to discuss various economic issues. Justice shares Peter's ideas regarding a solution to the falling dollar.

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Peter Schiff President
Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned. He has been quoted in many of the nation's leading newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Dallas Morning News, The Miami Herald, The San Francisco Chronicle, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Arizona Republic, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Christian Science Monitor, and has appeared on CNBC, CNNfn, Fox News and Bloomberg. In addition, his views are frequently quoted locally in the Orange County Register.

Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for nineteen years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, he is a highly recommended broker by many of the nation's financial newsletters and advisory services. Mr. Schiff holds NASD Series 4,7,24,27,53,55, & 63 licenses.

>> Click here for Mr. Schiff's video interviews.

Justice Litle, an editor of Outstanding Investments, has a unique background that has served him well in the markets. In college, Justice studied literature and philosophy in places as diverse as Oxford University (Oxford, England), Pulacki University (Olomouc, Czech Republic) and Macquarie University (Sydney, Australia). Originally pursuing a PhD and a life in academia, his career path changed forever after discovering “The Investment Biker,” Jim Rogers’ chronicle of macro investing by way of motorcycle.

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Click on images above to listen to the latest show. To learn more about software needed to play the above formats, please visit the FAQ.

Archived Shows:

John Loeffler, Gary Kaltbaum & Bob Chapman - August 12, 2006

Chris Powell, Karl Gronvall, Gary Kaltbaum & Bob Chapman - August 5, 2006

Dr. Leeb, David Bond, Bob Chapman, Jack Chan & Gary Kaltbaum - July 28, 2006

Paul Van Eeden, Bob Chapman plus more - July 22, 2006

Tim Wood, Bob Chapman plus more - July 15, 2006

Doug Casey & The Gold Wizards - July 8, 2006

Pamela Aden, David Garofalo & The Gold Wizards - July 1, 2006

James Turk, Bob Moriarty & The Gold Wizards - June 24, 2006

The Mogambo Guru, Dr. Roger Tutterow & George-Whitehurst-Berry - June 17, 2006

G. Edward Griffin, Kal Gronvall, Gary Kaltbaum, Bob Chapman and Jack Chan - June 10, 2006

Richard Russell, Ron Brown & Trading Wizards - June 03, 2006

Jason Hommel, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 27, 2006

Tom Udall, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 20, 2006

Bill Murphy & Michael Covel - May 13, 2006

Jim Sinclair - May 06, 2006

Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - April 28, 2006

Catherine Austin Fitts - April 22, 2006

Mark Leibovit - April 15, 2006

Addison Wiggin - April 8, 2006

Dr. Ron Paul - April 1, 2006

Bob Chapman - March 25, 2006

Dr. Marc Faber - March 18, 2006

John Rubion & David Coffin - March 11, 2006

Julian Phillips & Gary Kaltbaum - March 4, 2006

Steve Forbes & Dr. Van K. Tharp - February 25, 2006

Bob Chapman & Jack Chan - February 18, 2006

Jim Willie, Roland Watson & David Morgan - February 11, 2006

David Morgan

Jim Rogers

James Turk

Dr. Marc Faber

Bill Murphy

http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/