Friday, May 22, 2015

Arch Crawford & Fabian Calvo

May 22, 2015

Featured Guests
Arch Crawford & Fabian Calvo
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  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, elucidates listeners with comments on the impending FOMC rate hike, slated for September / December 2015.
  • He's doubtful that domestic economic conditions are robust enough to sustain a rate hike.
  • Arch is concerned by the US equities market, which is making 118 year highs on extremely low volume, which he thinks is a sign of manipulation.
  • The discussion includes Martin Armstrong's market timing model, which seems to coincide with the Hebrew Shemita (Shmita) a seven year cycle of amnesty.
  • The cycle is nearing another seven year zenith, coinciding with the expected Fed rate hike this Fall.
  • Could an FOMC rate increase trigger a global economic landslide? Many recent guests certainly think so.
  • The discussion continues with a review of the trading strategy of the legendary author / former Goldman Sach's trader and now professor, Dr. Nassim Taleb of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan fame.
  • Arch discusses his investing style, which bares a striking resemblance to that of Nassim Taleb's.
  • In 2008, Arch invested $2,500 in puts and earned over $500,000, a two hundred fold return. He invests a small amount in a contrary fashion each month, to reap similar rewards when the crowd is wrong.
  • Arch worries that a Cyprus-like moment could become a reality on a much larger scale - Europeans, Asians and Americans could suddenly find their account balances adjusted to reflect a new currency, with perhaps a fifty percent reduction in purchasing power.
  • Fabian Calvo from the, is watching US equities market margin levels with a weary eye, each time the crash harbinger overextended in the past a recession followed.
  • Approximately 1 out of 3 American's cannot find gainful employment or have given up the search for meaningful employment, 93 million souls - impacting at least one person in every household.
  • Never before in history has this number been so high.
  • Fabian's work shows that half of all jobs will be be replaced by automation in the next decade, resulting in a Terminator Movie like scenario. Most people will be caught off guard with the boomerang like shift.
  • The solution: job seekers must retool their skill set in advance of the coming workplace sea change.
  • The old job paradigm: go to college and accumulate debt has failed; the new paradigm involves online entrepreneurship and vocational training.
  • By building a solid skill set, entrepreneurial minded people can better prepare for the increasingly challenging / dynamic workplace.

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Chris Waltzek:
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