Friday, October 09, 2015

Arch Crawford & Ross Givens

Oct. 9, 2015
Arch Crawford & Ross Givens
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Summary:
  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, - he's double short the market bounce, in anticipation of continued volatility.
  • Arch likes the PMs, noting that tight supply conditions could help bring about a renaissance in the sector
  • He is accumulating silver in his personal stockpile.
  • Arch Crawford thinks the rebound rally is merely a bounce.
  • He earned $500,000 shorting US equities in 2008, using only $2,500, via put options.
  • He is currently following a similar strategy (caution advisable).
  • Although the Black-Scholes options pricing model works well with at / near-the-money-strike prices, far out-of-the-money options tend to be vastly underpriced.
  • This presents huge opportunity at market tipping points, according to chaos theory, Dr. Taleb, Arch Crawford and the host.
  • The duo suspect that the next bull market in the precious metals (PMs) could unfold in lightning fashion, beginning with a sudden dollar collapse.
  • The impetus could be continued US Treasury sales by the BRICS nations, per current headline reports.
  • The financial dialogue resumes with WTIC - Arch thinks that buying opportunities will abound in black gold.
  • Chris welcomes Ross Givens, from Wealth Empire to the show.
  • The duo concur that the Blog-o-Fear may be wrong on US equities; stocks are oversold and could present a long-term portfolio opportunity.
  • Stocks represent an excellent valuation over fixed-rate debt instruments, such as bonds.
  • His work indicates that gold / silver are reaching fire sale prices as the cash cost of mining production approaches the spot price.
  • Mining production is low and supply is tight.
  • When price is low, fewer projects are viable adding to already narrow supply conditions.
  • The net result is increased demand, which is perfect for bull market conditions.
  • He suggests adding the gold stock mining ETF to portfolios (GDX) to leverage a potential gold bull market.
  • The host suggests the (GDXJ) to participate in the smaller cap gold / silver mining operations, with the proviso of dollar cost averaging into positions.
  • The crude oil sector is entering similar conditions, where investment in new operations has dwindled, setting up a long-term opportunity.
  • Similar to the Alpha Stocks Newsletter, Wealth Empire monitors the investment strategies of top hedge fund investors and money managers, like Warren
  • Buffett, George Soros, and Carl Icahn, through SEC holdings reports.
    Favorite stocks include Apple Computer (AAPL) and General Motors (GM).

Show Host
Chris Waltzek:
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