Friday, May 29, 2015

Bill Murphy & Rob Kirby

May 29, 2015

Featured Guests
Bill Murphy & Rob Kirby
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Summary:
  • Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics says geopolitical tensions are the result of the unsound fiat money system and the resulting economic distress.
  • By kicking the economic can down the interstate highway, our officials are positioning for global warfare, which could erupt as soon as 2015.
  • Our guest is convinced that the People's Bank of China has accumulated at least 2 thousand tons of gold bullion per year.
  • Expect a ban on cash, relegating paper bills / coins to the garbage bin. The shift could facilitate a total surveillance state, where all transactions, no matter how small, leave a digital finger print.
  • When money is debased, creativity and the entrepreneurial / individualistic spirit is crushed.
  • Given the less than sanguine economic prospects facing most investors, the guest insists that portfolio diversification is a necessity, in particular, gold and silver assets.
  • Kirby paraphrases friend of the show, John Embry of Sprott Asset Management, "With precious metals, you can always afford to be two years early, but you can never afford to be ten minutes late."
  • The urgency is underscored by his findings that hyperinflationary events tend to occur in lightening like fashion, appearing from no where amid seemingly trivial events.
  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss a report from Bloomberg News analysts who claim, if the People's Bank of China (PBoC) supports the Yuan with gold, approximately 1,000 tons, the move would send the price of gold soaring to $64,000 per ounce, 50 times the current price.
  • In addition, reports from Venezuela indicate 64% inflation, approaching 5% per month as the Bolivar currency collapses.
  • Venezuelan money growth is approaching exponential levels, eerily similar to the Fed's balance sheet.

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Friday, May 22, 2015

Arch Crawford & Fabian Calvo

May 22, 2015

Featured Guests
Arch Crawford & Fabian Calvo
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Summary:
 
  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, elucidates listeners with comments on the impending FOMC rate hike, slated for September / December 2015.
  • He's doubtful that domestic economic conditions are robust enough to sustain a rate hike.
  • Arch is concerned by the US equities market, which is making 118 year highs on extremely low volume, which he thinks is a sign of manipulation.
  • The discussion includes Martin Armstrong's market timing model, which seems to coincide with the Hebrew Shemita (Shmita) a seven year cycle of amnesty.
  • The cycle is nearing another seven year zenith, coinciding with the expected Fed rate hike this Fall.
  • Could an FOMC rate increase trigger a global economic landslide? Many recent guests certainly think so.
  • The discussion continues with a review of the trading strategy of the legendary author / former Goldman Sach's trader and now professor, Dr. Nassim Taleb of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan fame.
  • Arch discusses his investing style, which bares a striking resemblance to that of Nassim Taleb's.
  • In 2008, Arch invested $2,500 in puts and earned over $500,000, a two hundred fold return. He invests a small amount in a contrary fashion each month, to reap similar rewards when the crowd is wrong.
  • Arch worries that a Cyprus-like moment could become a reality on a much larger scale - Europeans, Asians and Americans could suddenly find their account balances adjusted to reflect a new currency, with perhaps a fifty percent reduction in purchasing power.
  • Fabian Calvo from the NoteHouse.us, is watching US equities market margin levels with a weary eye, each time the crash harbinger overextended in the past a recession followed.
  • Approximately 1 out of 3 American's cannot find gainful employment or have given up the search for meaningful employment, 93 million souls - impacting at least one person in every household.
  • Never before in history has this number been so high.
  • Fabian's work shows that half of all jobs will be be replaced by automation in the next decade, resulting in a Terminator Movie like scenario. Most people will be caught off guard with the boomerang like shift.
  • The solution: job seekers must retool their skill set in advance of the coming workplace sea change.
  • The old job paradigm: go to college and accumulate debt has failed; the new paradigm involves online entrepreneurship and vocational training.
  • By building a solid skill set, entrepreneurial minded people can better prepare for the increasingly challenging / dynamic workplace.

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Friday, May 15, 2015

Andrew Maguire, Bob Hoye & Listener's Q&A

May 15, 2015

Featured Guests
Andrew Maguire, Bob Hoye & Listener's Q&A
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Summary:
  • Andrew Maguire, of Andrew Maguire Gold Trading makes his d├ębut appearance.
  • The 40 year gold market veteran and whistleblower, strengthens Ted Butler's silver market manipulation case.
  • Each ounce of exchange metal is leveraged 100 to 1.
  • Yet leverage of only 10 to 1 was required to ignite the Great Crash of 1929.
  • Our guest notes that the trading desks of the 6 key bullion banks and the BIS are in collusion, keenly aware of major turning points and culpable for sharing confidential information with associates.
  • The huge paper based, naked short position held by the bullion banks exposes them to sizable default risk.
  • Expect PMs market manipulation schemes to end in 2015, resulting in markedly improved transparency.
  • Bob Hoye, senior Investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, watches the market all day, every day, tick by tick.
  • Bob warns that correlation in the markets does not always imply causation.
  • Similarly, false conclusions such as credit expansion equates with economic growth - are at the foundation of faulty central bank policies.
  • From 1985-1995, a ten year period was required to double the Fed's balance sheet.
  • Next, from 1995-2009, approximately 14 years were required. But by 2009, the
  • Fed doubled their balance sheet over night and again in 2012-2013 and still again in 2014.
  • What used to require 10-14 years is now happening every other year. Given the unprecedented bailout figure and subsequent credit injections.
  • The host proposes the bold idea: did the financial system fail in 2009 only to be held together by substantial CB duct tape?
  • In the 1920's the Fed began Open Market Operations for the first time in national history, holding rates artificially low in turn encouraging speculation, culminating with the 1929 stock market crash and Great Depression - a virtual playbook for the current economy.
  • Bob says the only thing holding back hyperinflation is the bond / stock market rally, where inflation is destined to eventually find its way to a gold / silver market near you.

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Friday, May 08, 2015

Jim Rogers, Peter Eliades & David Morgan

May 8, 2015

Featured Guests
Jim Rogers, Peter Eliades & David Morgan
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Summary:
  • Hailing from scenic Zurich Switzerland, Jim Rogers outlines his investing plan for 2015.
    WTIC appears to be oversold - expect an important bottom this year.
    The investing legend plans to increase his stockpile of gold at under $1,000 an ounce.
    He favors equities shares from China (largest holding).
    Fed officials may feel compelled to make an incremental rate hike or two, to save face given the level of rate hike rhetoric.
    Nonetheless, such efforts will be in vain, the inevitable day of economic reckoning is imminent.
  • According to Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, a particular angle of ascent or slope has lead to a market zenith for nearly 14 consecutive years.
  • He presents the precise slope angle and a simple means to calculate the trendline (slope = 68.3 / 238 days = 0.28584) for virtually any forecasting chart.
  • Since 2002, the market has failed to close over 1.1% beyond the trendline and then subsequently declined sharply.
  • On Monday, May 4th, the model registered a key stock market top, with the proviso that no construct is perfect.
  • A market peak of great importance seems imminent.
  • His work suggests that the potential return in US equities is significantly lower than the potential risk - echoing the sentiments of previous guests, such as Dr. Burton Malkiel.
  • Our guest suggests Hussman Funds, a free website with market commentary.
  • The Silver Investor David Morgan views dollar strength as a direct result of capital flight from the EU.
  • Still, the US dollar is a flawed currency, losing over 95% of its value due to Fed machinations.
  • The 30 year love affair with US bonds is coming to an end - the coming debt market implosion will direct trillions of dollars into a competing safe haven, gold and silver, tiny markets relative to bonds.
  • David Morgan says every portfolio requires at least 10% PMs exposure.
  • Few investors have even this recommended amount. The bottom may be in place.
  • A final capitulation may not come to pass in the PMs before the onset of the nascent bull market, despite the monthly downtrend.

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http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/