Sunday, November 29, 2015

Peter Schiff, Louis Navellier, Bill Murphy & Harry S. Dent Jr.

Nov. 27, 2015
Peter Schiff, Louis Navellier, Bill Murphy and                           Harry S. Dent Jr.

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Summary:
  • Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with commentary on the latest FOMC rate decision.
  • Fed officials have no intentions of hiking rates in 2015, despite the hawkish rhetoric making the media reports.
  • Financial debt-bubbles are typically followed by deflation, not inflation, which is a key reason why Fed policymakers hands are tied.
  • Too many money managers piled into the risk-off, long-only trade - the unwinding process could be more protracted than anticipated
  • The recent equities selloff could be merely the opening salvo of a new downtrend in equities, culminating with multiple price implosions.
  • The downtrend could persist throughout 2016.
  • The housing, echo-boom of 2009-2015 is losing momentum as investors / builders brace for higher rates.
  • Household income per capita has plunged since 2008, more than $5,000 - eroding another key housing demand factor.
  • Harry S. Dent notes the new long-term downtrend in housing.
  • He expects the market to drop by at least 40-50% on average and much more in frothy regions.
  • The net result will be buying opportunities for those who anticipating the sea change event.
  • The HGX Housing Index, appears to be developing the most bearish of all technical price patterns (Figure 1.1.).
  • Chris welcomes back to the show, Bill Murphy from GATA.org. The discussion includes Nassim Taleb's latest work, AntiFragile, free PDF link listed below.
  • Due to Fed intervention, risk was removed from the markets, that is until recently.
  • Even hedge funds that are supposed to ameliorate risk, employed long-only investment strategies to remain competitive.
  • However, without the Fed rate panacea, the threat of higher rates rattled the markets.
  • The duo discuss the growing crowd of cognoscente who insist that the precious metals (PMs) markets are manipulated.
  • Bill Murphy agrees with friend of the show, Jim Rogers, that a currency crisis could unfold, sending the precious metals skyward.
  • For instance, the Argentine currency dilemma resulted with a 100% in the price of gold in approximately 12 months (Figure 1.1.).
  • The next bull market in gold / silver and related equities could unfold at an alarming pace, making the prescribed accumulation via dollar cost averaging all the more sound an investment strategy.
  • Despite months of hawkish jawboning by Fed policymakers, the benchmark overnight lending rate will remain fixed at .25 at the next FOMC meeting, with a 91% probability (Figure 1.2.).
  • The duo ask the poignant question, "What do Fed policymakers know about the domestic economy, that is holding back the inevitable rate hike?"

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Chris Waltzek
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Monday, November 23, 2015

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts & CEO, Eric Fier

Nov. 20, 2015
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts / CEO, Eric Fier
(guest appearance by seniority)

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Summary:
  • Eric Fier, President, CEO and Director of SilverCrest Metals, joins the show.
  • As a geological engineer and certified geologist, President Fier understands the mining business, from the ground up, literally.
  • SilverCrest Metals is a reset of the successful SilverCrest Mines, with the same management.
  • The solid management team is the hallmark of successful mining operations. The Sonora region is home to their flagship property.
  • CEO fier deploys a strategy to maximize shareholder wealth.
  • The Durango region is home to the Guadeloupe Property; initial results indicate solid gold and silver deposits.
  • The cutting edge 'phased approach', through starting operations in a small fashion, only expanding via cash flow is yielding a competitive edge.
  • Estimated year-end cash reserves of $7.5 million, suggests the operation is poised for solid growth over the next two years.
  • Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and editor / columnist for the Wall Street Journal / Business Week returns.
  • His work indicates a collapse of the national economic "House of cards," is imminent, no longer a question of if, but merely a matter of time.
  • A few leading banks carry more debt each, than the entire world's output: global GDP (GWP: $76 trillion), according to the World Bank.
  • In order to stop the doomed system falling into a deflationary sink-hole, interest rates have been held low to the detriment of retiree's.
  • Unlike all previous economic recoveries the latest has coincided with a declining labor force participation rate.
  • His work indicates that the gold market is rigged, to maintain US dollar hegemony.
  • Eventually the process will be reversed, resulting in much higher yellow metal prices.

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Chris Waltzek
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James Turk & John Williams

Nov. 13 , 2015
James Turk / John Williams
(guest order - alphabetical)

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Summary:
  • James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the domestic economy.
  • Half of 25 year olds in the US are living in their parent's homes, struggling to make ends meet.
  • The statistic is emblematic of the erosion of the economic affluence of the middle class.
  • The issue stems from lost purchasing power of the currency, resulting from profligate monetary expansion.
  • When income is adjusted for inflation and related expenses, most employees earn far less than medieval serfs.
  • The desperation of the situation is exacerbate by the off-shoring of tens of millions of high paying jobs, due to NAFTA and related policies.
  • The persistence of gold backwardation (current spot lower than future price) should not occur, as it presents an arbitrage situation.
  • Since 2000, gold has appreciated over 11% on average each year and held it's purchasing power much better than most competing asset classes.
  • The US dollar is lower, while stocks and bonds have hardly budged since that point, while gold has ascended at least four fold, $250 to over $1,000.
  • Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show.
  • The true underlying economic situation, hidden within the "official" economic data, is less than encouraging.
  • The typically cool-headed and collected economic-sleuth is unnerved by Fed policies.
  • His work indicates that the economy never recovered from that ominous period, resulting in the current stagnation.
  • Our guest echoes American economist Dr. Frank Knight who noted: economics is simple.
  • John Williams uncovers fingerprints of gold market manipulation / rigging, likely stemming from official sources.
  • His analysis indicates a US dollar endgame scenario of less than sanguine consequences.
  • The host suggests an alternative hypothesis: the PBoC is aggressively promoting China's Yuan currency to the IMF, as a global reserve currency alternative, as seen by the recent currency pegging to the Swiss Franc.
  • Therefore, dollar strength resulting from imminent US rate hikes in 2016 and dovish moves by the ECB, PBoC and the BOJ, are responsible for most of the 12 month dollar rally and resulting commodities weakness.
  • John Williams and the host agree that the perfect panacea for the typical investment portfolio remains PMs, the ideal insurance policy.

Show Host
Chris Waltzek
About Chris
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