Friday, January 15, 2016

Dr. Marc Faber & Professor Burton Malkiel

Jan. 15, 2016
Featured Guests:
Dr. Marc Faber & Professor Burton Malkiel
Guest order - alphabetical.

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Summary:
  • Dr. Burton Malkiel, Professor from Princeton University returns to the show to discus the 11th edition of his magnum opus, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
  • His outlook for 2016 is somber - equities and most asset classes seem overvalued.
  • The CAPE P/E ratio, currently near 23 in the US, which indicates US shares are overpriced relative to global shares, on a historical basis.
  • When valuations are extended, diversification is most necessary, buffering the impact of increased volatility.
  • Although the professor agrees with the host that 2016 will be a year of Fed rate hikes, tame economic conditions will likely hold policymakers in check.
  • The idea of market unpredictability is comparable to quantum mechanics, where Einstein could not accept quantum theory.
  • Instead of predicting price outcomes, probability theory facilitates enhanced portfolio return.
  • Even the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett has publicly denounced active investing, instructing his heirs to engage in passive index investing.
  • The professor offers his favorite index fund with a low expense ratio, the ETF: (VTI), with a remarkable expense ratio of 1/20th of one percent, 0.0005%.
  • Using such low expense ETFs, the typical individual investor can easily outperform virtually all top money managers and hedge funds.
  • Adding bonds to stock index funds is advisable.
  • Chris welcomes back Dr. Marc Faber, a widely respected economist and editor of the GloomBoomDoom report.
  • Our guest expects the Fed to backpedal with the new rate hike policy, with the announcement of a new wave of monetary expansion this year, QE 4.
  • Policymakers are pushing on a string - monetary expansion is far less affective with each installment.
  • Although the equities indexes are being buoyed by a few key shares, the majority of stocks are in bear market territory.
  • Dr. Faber questions the veracity of official US economic figures, noting a high likelihood of a recession in early 2016 despite official indications to the contrary.
  • After years of stagnation, gold shares are outperforming most sectors, as their relative value encourages wise investors to allocate funds into the XAU.
  • Dr. Faber recently added to his gold position, using weakness as an opportunity to procure sound money at a discount.
  • The storage cost for physical gold bullion is low making the yellow metal an ideal asset to outperform other commodities amid a 2016 rebound rally.

Show Host
Chris Waltzek
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