Friday, February 26, 2016

Monty Guild & Bill Murphy

Feb. 26, 2016
Featured Guests:
Monty Guild & Bill Murphy

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Summary:
  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org says the gold cartel has lost the ability to suppress price due in part to record physical demand.
  • The HUI advanced as much as 70% in merely six weeks.
  • Fed officials and their BOJ / EU colleagues have turned markedly dovish, sending a signal to investors of the potential opportunity in the PMs market.
  • While gold market represents an incredible valuation opportunity, Bill Murphy thinks silver is the most undervalued asset in history.
  • Our guest makes the bold silver forecast of $100-$150, representing a 10 fold, 1000% expected return.
  • As the CRB commodities market finds a floor, silver investors could benefit from not only the monetary aspects, but the industrial applications.
  • Once the full monetary strength is realized, a 10:1 gold / silver ratio could catapult the price of the remarkable metal to well over three digits.
  • As astronomical 500+ P/E ratios, such as that of Apple Computer revert to the mean, hundreds of billions of dollars will flow into the PMs sector.
  • Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment - his sources insist that China is accumulating huge gold reserves under the table at deep discounts.
  • Canada and many other countries have sold much of their gold reserve stockpiles to raise funds.
  • The myopic decision will backfire, ultimately requiring the repurchase of gold reserves at much higher prices.
  • Monty Guild expects the PMs shares to outperform the underlying metals. Distrust in government officials and bargain prices could set the base for much higher PMs prices.
  • An oil market price floor could unfold in coming months due in part to recent OPEC member supply limits.
  • US and international paper assets such as stocks and bonds are far less appealing in 2016.
  • Although equities P/E ratios indicate overvaluation, our guest likes shares in Google (GOOG).
  • The head of Guild Investment outlines 3 key geoeconomic themes in the US, EU and China:
  • The burden of enormous national debt will limit US economic prospects.
  • China is in far better economic shape than anticipated;
    Banking sector in the EU is facing insolvency issues - a Russia / Turkey showdown seems imminent.
    His exceptional grandson is a high school mathematical-prodigy, who penned a remarkable book, Physics Reforged, available at Amazon.com.

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Bill Murphy
GATA.org
Bill Murphy, GATA Chairman
Murphy grew up in Glen Ridge, N.J., and graduated from the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in 1968. In his senior year he broke all the Ivy League single-year pass-receving records. He then became a starting wide receiver for the Boston Patriots of the American Football League. He went on to work for various Wall Street brokerage firms and specialized in commodity futures. He began as a Merrill Lynch trainee and went on to Shearson Hayden Stone and Drexel Burnham. From there he became affiliated with introducing brokers and eventually started his own brokerage on 5th Avenue in New York. He now operates an Internet site for financial commentary, www.lemetropolecafe.com.
To visit the website, please click here.
Monty Guild
Guild Investment Management
Monty Guild founded Guild Investment Management in 1971. Mr. Guild is a recognized expert in the areas of international investing and economics. He has been a writer and speaker on economic issues for 30 plus years and has been widely quoted in the world media. Mr. Guild supervises the investment and research functions at Guild Investment Management. He holds a BA in economics and an MBA with highest honors. Mr. Guild and Mr. Danaher manage the aggressive growth, global growth, and hybrid investment accounts.
To visit my website: click here.

Friday, February 19, 2016

Louis Navellier & Martin Armstrong

Feb. 19, 2016
Featured Guests:
Louis Navellier & Martin Armstrong

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Summary:
  • Chris welcomes back Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, the subject of a new riveting documentary The Forecaster (2015).
  • Watch the theatrical trailer video (Figure 1.1.).
  • At the heart of his investing methodology are international money flows.
  • The recent FOMC rate hike could actually be a boon for US equities indexes, as investors direct funds from sluggish international zones.
  • The discussion includes the threat posed by a cash-less society, an economic ontology gaining momentum domestically and worldwide.
  • The Forecaster shares his stock market forecast: expect 26,000 - 27,000, with a potential for 40,000 on the Dow Jones Industrials followed by extreme volatility into 2017-2020.
  • The dialogue returns to the domestic economy - up to 70% of the national debt stems from interest on debt.
  • Westerners could learn much from the economic miracle in Japan - following WWII, Japan became the 2nd largest economy worldwide.
  • Since then, China has followed its own path, capturing the title of second largest superpower by building up the infrastructure.
  • The chat concludes with an interesting discussion on the nature of market forecasting, expert systems and genetic algorithms, useful for improved prognostication.
  • Chris welcomes back Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.
  • He reviews a few stocks that may have run too far, too fast and may require hedging amid extremely volatile conditions.
  • Louis Navellier has a knack for calling bull / bear markets in stocks including the 2009-2015 bull market and more recently the stock market zenith.
  • Listener's are advised to take heed of his surprisingly bearish sentiments.
  • Our guest outlines the only commodities stock in his portfolio: Cal-Maine an agricultural stock in Mississippi: (CALM).
  • When the stock market rebounds (ULTA) and (HD) could outperform.
  • Every investor must own precious metals - the time is right to increase gold allocation.

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Friday, February 12, 2016

James Turk, John Williams, Yannis Tsitos & Bob Hoye (encore).

Feb. 12, 2016
Featured Guests:
James Turk, John Williams, Yannis Tsitos & Bob Hoye (encore).
(guest order - alphabetical)

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Summary:
  • President and Director of Goldsource Mines (GXS.V), Yannis Tsitos makes his show debut.
  • Peter Spina has chosen his firm as the top PMs stock opportunity of 2016.
  • With close to 30 years to perfect his work, President Tsitos knows how to turn a small mining company into a world-class operation.
  • The company vision includes expanding to a medium sized gold producer. The South American project shows great potential.
  • Many of the Guyana based gold deposits are located near the surface, making extraction profitable.
  • The only English speaking nation in S.A., Guyana is a pro-mining, former British colony, offering additional appeal to operations.
  • His management team boasts 250 years of experience, adding significant shareholder value.
  • First gold production by Christmas on their flagship property for merely $480 cash cost-$630 all in cost per ounce, merely half the spot price.
  • Goldsource has an affiliation with major producer and key shareholder (5%), IAMGOLD, adding strategic synergies.
  • Shareholders benefit from the coal property in Canada, with significant resources and exploration potential.
  • James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the domestic economy.
  • Half of 25 year olds in the US are living in their parent's homes, struggling to make ends meet.
  • The statistic is emblematic of the erosion of the economic affluence of the middle class.
  • The issue stems from lost purchasing power of the currency, resulting from profligate monetary expansion.
  • When income is adjusted for inflation and related expenses, most employees earn far less than medieval serfs.
  • The desperation of the situation is exacerbate by the off-shoring of tens of millions of high paying jobs, due to NAFTA and related policies.
  • The persistence of gold backwardation (current spot lower than future price) should not occur, as it presents an arbitrage situation.
  • Since 2000, gold has appreciated over 11% on average each year and held it's purchasing power much better than most competing asset classes.
  • The US dollar is lower, while stocks and bonds have hardly budged since that point, while gold has ascended at least four fold, $250 to over $1,000.
  • Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show.
  • The true underlying economic situation, hidden within the "official" economic data, is less than encouraging.
  • The typically cool-headed and collected economic-sleuth is unnerved by Fed policies.
  • His work indicates that the economy never recovered from that ominous period, resulting in the current stagnation.
  • Our guest echoes American economist Dr. Frank Knight who noted: economics is simple.
  • John Williams uncovers fingerprints of gold market manipulation / rigging, likely stemming from official sources.
  • His analysis indicates a US dollar endgame scenario of less than sanguine consequences.
  • The host suggests an alternative hypothesis: the PBoC is aggressively promoting China's Yuan currency to the IMF, as a global reserve currency alternative, as seen by the recent currency pegging to the Swiss Franc.
  • Therefore, dollar strength resulting from imminent US rate hikes in 2016 and dovish moves by the ECB, PBoC and the BOJ, are responsible for most of the 12 month dollar rally and resulting commodities weakness.
  • John Williams and the host agree that the perfect panacea for the typical investment portfolio remains PMs, the ideal insurance policy.
  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors.
  • The discussion begins with the news from South America, that the Venezuelan government has plans to sell the national gold stockpile.
  • If implemented, the operation would undo the significant efforts of the late Hugo Chavez.
  • Global central banks are inadvertently supporting the PMs community - policymakers at the PBoC and EU announced new monetary stimulus plans.
  • The EU finance minister is considering a plan to lower the benchmark lending rate further into negative territory, an unprecedented event.
  • The Fed Chair shocked investors this week, noting that if domestic economic conditions continue to deteriorate, negative US lending rates could be helpful.
  • Some market watchers inferred from the speech that Fed officials might not raise rates in 2016.
  • The CME Group Fed Funds Futures contracts suggest that investors are now placing high odds that rates will increase sharply, to 1-2% or higher, as soon as next year.
  • Bob Hoye notes that Fed policymakers may not set rates, but actually follow the market trend in rates.
  • For instance, the 2 year T-Bill seems to lead Fed interest rate policy (Figure 1.2).
  • Our guest notes that the PMs market could be building a base, in advance of the next bull market.
  • He outlines his Christmas Bonus indicator, based on the Broker / Dealer index via the ETF (IAI).

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Chris Waltzek
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Saturday, February 06, 2016

Bob Hoye & Jeffrey Nichols

Feb. 4, 2016
Featured Guests:
Bob Hoye & Jeffrey Nichols

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Summary:

  • Jeffrey Nichols of Rosland Capital, returns to the show with his latest insights on the precious metals sector.
  • A new uptrend suggests the multi-year selloff may be reversing course.
  • With signs of sluggish economic output, our guest suggests that Fed policymakers could back-peddle on the new interest rate policy.
  • The inflation adjusted or real interest rate may already be negative, depending on the source examined. I
  • Investors should brace for either a new wave of QE or a novel approach to boost economic growth.
  • But even if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, gold will likely rise anyway, due to supply shortages.
  • Gold could soon eclipse the 2010 zenith, ascending above $2,000 per ounce as soon as the end of next year, yielding 100% profits.
  • If our guest's forecast is correct, the yellow metal could climb as high as $3,000-$5,000, within seven years.
    Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors.
  • US equities could be entering a bear market, given media reports of a domestic retail "Apocalypse", with thousand retail store closings.
  • Now that gold has recovered by nearly $100 from the recent lows, gold and silver investments represent the best portfolio insurance currently available.
  • Gold / silver equities could present an excellent contrarian opportunity, relative to overpriced sectors.
  • Mines are lean and mean, due to lower crude oil prices and related expenses, prepared to tackle exciting new opportunities.
  • Cash rich firms can procure properties with the most potential at a fraction of the cost.
  • The host and guest concur that long-term portfolio investing is the safest and most profitable way to build a solid financial future.

Show Host
Chris Waltzek
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http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/