Sunday, April 24, 2016

Peter Grandich & Bob Hoye

April 22, 2016
Featured Guests:
Peter Grandich & Bob Hoye

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Summary:
  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors.
  • Bob outlines his latest forecasts for gold, silver their shares and the US stock indexes.
  • Just as the emotions of fear (nadirs) and greed (zeniths) still reign in the financial markets, little has changed in hundreds of years of monetary policy.
  • As it is today, so it was even in antiquity - policymakers debased their currencies, until all that remained was the base metal content.
  • The outcome is always the same, each nation / empire entered a protracted period of decline.
  • The discussion turns to the Reuters report, regarding the DB financial institution's confession of long-term silver fixing.
  • The major banker agreed to reveal several of its conspirator's in a settlement.
  • Bob Hoye's work indicates that during deflationary Great Crashes, since the 1600's, 80% of the time gold (real money) has yielded stunning returns.
  • Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with comments on US equities and the Precious Metals sector.
  • The precious metals sector could continue to shine this year amid increased global geopolitical tensions, as well as improved demand and limited supply.
  • Years of pessimism have increased the likelihood of solid gains in 2016. This fact is most evident from a technical perspective.
  • Each wave of selling is followed by an even stronger rally, suggestive that sellers have exhausted themselves, a plus for the bulls.
  • The guest / host agree that portfolio diversification with a heavier weight on the PMs sector is advisable.
  • He views the US shares market as somewhat ambiguities and bifurcated.
  • While corporate earnings have slowed, the engine of higher share prices, investors have discounted the odds of future Fed rate hikes.
  • Monetary policies are the central reason why US shares continue to tread water. By propping up economic conditions with near zero rates and buying up toxic debt, the slight of hands artificially boost GDP.
  • As a result, the pseudo-recovery has put the domestic economy in jeopardy.

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    Chris Waltzek
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    Friday, April 15, 2016

    Robert Kiyosaki, Dr. Marc Faber, Professor Burton Malkiel & Marin Aleksov

    April 15, 2016
    Featured Guests:
    Robert Kiyosaki, Dr. Marc Faber, Professor Burton Malkiel & Marin Aleksov
    (encore show)

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    Summary:
    • Dr. Burton Malkiel, Professor from Princeton University returns to the show to discus the 11th edition of his magnum opus, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
    • His outlook for 2016 is somber - equities and most asset classes seem overvalued.
    • The CAPE P/E ratio, currently near 23 in the US, which indicates US shares are overpriced relative to global shares, on a historical basis.
    • When valuations are extended, diversification is most necessary, buffering the impact of increased volatility.
    • Although the professor agrees with the host that 2016 will be a year of Fed rate hikes, tame economic conditions will likely hold policymakers in check.
    • The idea of market unpredictability is comparable to quantum mechanics, where Einstein could not accept quantum theory.
    • Instead of predicting price outcomes, probability theory facilitates enhanced portfolio return.
    • Even the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett has publicly denounced active investing, instructing his heirs to engage in passive index investing.
    • The professor offers his favorite index fund with a low expense ratio, the ETF: (VTI), with a remarkable expense ratio of 1/20th of one percent, 0.0005%.
    • Using such low expense ETFs, the typical individual investor can easily outperform virtually all top money managers and hedge funds.
    • Adding bonds to stock index funds is advisable.
    • Chris welcomes back Dr. Marc Faber, a widely respected economist and editor of the GloomBoomDoom report.
    • Our guest expects the Fed to backpedal with the new rate hike policy, with the announcement of a new wave of monetary expansion this year, QE 4.
    • Policymakers are pushing on a string - monetary expansion is far less affective with each installment.
    • Although the equities indexes are being buoyed by a few key shares, the majority of stocks are in bear market territory.
    • Dr. Faber questions the veracity of official US economic figures, noting a high likelihood of a recession in early 2016 despite official indications to the contrary.
    • After years of stagnation, gold shares are outperforming most sectors, as their relative value encourages wise investors to allocate funds into the XAU.
    • Dr. Faber recently added to his gold position, using weakness as an opportunity to procure sound money at a discount.
    • The storage cost for physical gold bullion is low making the yellow metal an ideal asset to outperform other commodities amid a 2016 rebound rally.
    • Chris welcomes back to the show, Marin Aleksov, CEO of Rosland Capital.
    • Our guest says the recent market volatility, domestically as well as in Asia, which could lead to a 2008 style market crisis, halting the FOMC rate hikes.
    • In addition, the collapse would increase appeal of safe haven assets such as precious metals.
    • Marin Aleksov is primarily concerned with the return of his wealth and less so with the return, on his portfolio.
    • Our guest advocates a gold allocation of 20%-30% per investment portfolio.
    • Investors may be placing too big an emphasis on near-term performance.
    • Gold is still higher by over 25% since 2008.
    • With gold priced at bargain levels, the risk / reward is enticing.
    • Millions of investors worldwide are seizing the opportunity to increase exposure with limited downside.
    • Chris welcomes Robert Kiyoaski, America's 'Rich Dad' back to the show, author of Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World (2015).
    • The Rich Dad book series author expects the US share slide to continue in earnest.
    • He's convinced that the yellow metal has completed the bear market, which is why he's directing funds to the gold safe haven.
    • Investors are advised to ignore the dollar price of gold and silver and focus instead on the number of ounces in their stockpile.
    • "The biggest risk is not owning it (gold)."
    • He's watching the price of oil closely.
    • He leaves the listening audience with a warning - an epic financial crisis is imminent, much worse than 1929, 2001 or 2008.

    Show Host
    Chris Waltzek
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    Friday, April 08, 2016

    John Embry & Bill Murphy

    April 8, 2016
    Featured Guests:
    John Embry & Bill Murphy

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    Summary:
    • Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns to the show with comments on the national gold stockpile.
    • A growing cadre of researchers note that gold swap arrangements make decyphering the domestic a daughnting task, so reserves are likely overstated.
    • Wise BRIC central banks are accumulating the metal at new records, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), 480 tons of gold was purchased.
    • Key takeaway point: once the gold enters their vaults, the ounces essentially evaporate from the market.
    • Gold bears can no longer claim that the monetary metal carries zero interest, gold and silver both pay substantial interest by avoiding interest payments.
    • Like John Embry, Bill Murphy expects a big shift in investor tastes, making the unloved silver sector the defacto loved asset class du jour.
    • His work indicates a 100:1 risk to reward ratio in silver, $1-$2 risk on the downside with at least $100 on the upside.
    • Naked short-selling in the highly illiquid markets helping send PMs shares to outperform the underlying metals, as shorts scramble to cover.
    • Chris welcomes back, John Embry, Senior Strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
    • He shares his outlook on the precious metals sector.
    • News that gold was higher by 16% in the first quarter unnerved the central bank cartel, sending shockwaves through their ranks.
    • US equities appear wildly overvalued, despite constant support from government officials.
    • He cautions investors on US stocks - new purchases may not be warranted. Nevertheless, the PMs equities indexes HUI / XAU remain robust.
    • The PMs shares tend to lead the underlying PMs higher.
    • While the 80% advance in the HUI may seem excessive, the covering of billions of 'naked' shares, could support higher prices.
    • The retail market may not have even begun to dip its collective toe into the proverbial marketplace, which could extend the impressive rally.
    • While gold is destined for a several fold price explosion in the coming years, silver represents the best bargain.
    • The gold : silver ratio could easily drop from 80:1 to 20:1 sending silver to $60 per ounce without any change in the gold price.

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    Chris Waltzek
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    Friday, April 01, 2016

    Jim Rogers & John Williams

    April 1, 2016
    Featured Guests:
    Jim Rogers & John Williams

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    Summary:
    •Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office - he notes twice as many US stocks were down in 2015 as up, a bearish market breadth indication.



    •The primary reason why the equities indexes remain aloft is the enormous debt burden added to the balance sheets of the Fed, since 2008.



    •But unlike 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929, the US is now the largest debtor nation in the world, putting the country at elevated risk of default.



    •This anomaly presents the most precarious economic quagmire in national history.



    •He's currently long the US dollar (from much lower levels), the Yuan, Chinese stocks, short US shares, long agricultural futures and holding on tightly to gold / silver.
    •Poised like a praying mantis, the ever vigilant investor is anticipating the right opportunity to increase his gold / silver exposure.
    •With an established knack for identifying profit opportunities outside the scope of the mainstream media he recently developed a penchant for undervalued Russian bonds and rubles.
    •Unlike the West, Russia is not a debtor nation but a creditor, for instance, Cuba owes Russia $25 billion as of 2013 figures.






    •Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with a characteristically non-sanguine stance on the economy.







    •Global QE operations are detrimental, meant only for temporary banking system support, as a result long-term QE operations have caused economic dependence.







    •The low rate methodology is particularly deleterious for retiree's, many of whom







    •House loans are challenging to procure; 25% of existing house sales are cash transactions, indicating nervousness on the part of lenders.







    •Our guest expects Fed policymakers to revamp QE operations to prevent a systemic collapse in the US dollar.







    •Anything to avoid a Great Deflation - sending inflation to much higher levels.







    •The action fails to address the Fiscal spending / monetary debt issues. John Williams favors physical bullion, gold / silver sovereign coins over bullion bars.
    •The host / guest agree that as the dollar slide begins in earnest, WTIC, crude oil prices will rebound in spectacular fashion.
    •When the unscrupulous share buyback effects are removed from US stock indexes, clearly market momentum has stalled.
    •The US economy never truly recovered from the 2008 Great Recession and could roll over into a similar scenario.
    •The host notes that the US has been in a recession since the year 2000, when the GDP is properly adjusted for inflation - the guest responds that the current economic quagmire is comparable to the Great Depression (Figure 1.1.).
    •The reason why it has not been recognized by the mainline media as a Great Depression, is due to government subsidies.
    •Without such programs, lines would form miles long around national soup kitchens.
    •John Williams views gold and silver as the ultimate investment portfolio hedging components - essential balancing mechanisms.
    •Our guest not only joins the chorus of leading financial pundits, but projects the voice above them all, calling for $100,000-$1,000,000 per ounce gold.

    Show Host
    Chris Waltzek
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    http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/