Friday, November 03, 2017

Arch Crawford & Bob Hoye

Guest order - alphabetical

Show Highlights
  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, discusses the worst natural disaster in California history, the 2017 firestorm.
  • The host proposes that 40 lives and 8,000 structures might have been spared if clay / terra cotta roofing panels were required by state building codes.
  • The onus of most of the fires stemmed from smoldering embers spread by the 40 mph gusts to adjacent roofs, where highly flammable tar tiles quickly ignited.
  • Californian officials are URGED to implement a statewide roofing upgrade.
  • Using tax credits and incentives, clay tile roofs would protect against future firestorms.
  • The show dialogue turns to the Bitcoin miracle; much of the recent strength is arguably due to accumulation ahead of the upcoming Segwit2x Hard-Fork.
  • The event is slated for mid-November; hard forks represent a token dividend.
  • While detractors cite the extreme volatility of Bitcoin, the host refutes the argument.
  • The king of cryptos differentiates itself in many ways from traditional currencies, including divisibility down to .00000001, as well as a nearly instantaneous transaction rate, essentially eliminating most of the volatility issues.
  • Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with Part II on the Bitcoin phenomenon.
  • According to the mythical founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, in Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (2008), trust in financial transactions was hijacked by the financial intermediaries.
  • The solution emerged from the elimination of the blockchain signature / hashing system.
  • A simple way to view Bitcoin is a CPU powered network where each node votes via CPU power to verify its block in the block chain.
  • Antonopolous estimates that not even the computing power / financial resources of an entire superpower could falsify a single transaction.
  • Antonopolous' defense of Bitcoin / Block chain is arguable comparable to the Constitutional Convention of 1776 (figure 1.1.).
  • Although an unpopular view, the host confirms the notion that Bitcoin = Digital Gold, or a close facsimile.
  • For the first time in 50 years of digital commerce an identical contract or Bitcoin has a unique signature, emulating the gold content of a coin.
  • In true Talebian fashion, the Bitcoin network is de facto anti-fragile, i.e., similar to the internet / email, if one node or several fail, the network is safe.
  • Based loosely on Metcalfe's Law governing any digital network, a unique Bitcoin valuation model emerges.
  • The square of the number of users of ANY network times the average transaction rate over the total users.
  • Given the 4.2 million users, figure is squared it and multiplied by the daily average transaction per block and voila, near the current price.
  • To identify a forecast, apply Google's Trend analysis to anticipate the new number of Bitcoin Users, which reveals that the number doubles every year.
  • A basic BTC valuation model results in a 1$ million Bitcoin price in 7 years.