Friday, March 30, 2018

Arch Crawford, Bix Weir & Chris Waltzek Ph.D.

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Show Highlights
  • Part I of the discussion of Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A includes comments on silver and Bitcoin.
  • While gold remains the de facto king of currencies, Bix Weir outlines his highly bullish case for silver.
  • The duo agree, silver represents an ideal safe haven as a hedge against the Echo Bubble, which threatens to ignite the Great Recession II.
  • While research suggests the Comex gold / silver ratio is 100:1, our guest identifies a competing figure of 2,000:1, paper to bullion.
  • The supply situation is just as impressive; although the gold / silver ratio is near 80:1, the empirical ratio is 1:1, as stockpiles of gold exceed that of silver.
  • The theoretical value of silver is $1,000+, a 50+ fold relative discount to current prices.
  • In 2016 100 billion ounces of silver is currently traded on exchanges, although only 50 billion ounces exist, ergo the silver market may be nearing a key, bullish inflection point.
  • All silver ETFs and proxies are based on the fractional reserve system dynamics, magnifying the investment risks associated with rehypothecation, making the case for 1:1 gold / silver.
  • The resulting threat to the global financial system is many times larger in scale / scope than the combined impact of MF Global, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers debacles.
  • Both Bix Weir and the host plan to HODL silver until market manipulation comes to an inevitable halt.
  • The discussion includes Bitcoin / Altcoins and the crypto-sphere. Nearly 3 billion global inhabitants have zero access to banking resources, including services taken for granted.
  • Nothing is required for most of the disenfranchised to open a Bitcoin or Ethereum account.
  • Using a mobile phone and voila, even the indigent are a "walking bank."
  • Not even a phone is required to download a free Bitcoin wallet at a local library desktop.
  • Bix Weir is leery regarding the Bitcoin ramp to $20,000 and subsequent decline under $8,000 - he suspects powerful interests intended to dump Mt. Gox BTC inventory at high prices.
  • Due to the hype of numerous impending Bitcoin forks, Fork-apalooza.
  • Excitment regarding the new BTC futures contracts, caused liquidity to dry up as investors bought the rumors and then sold the fact.
  • Financial markets are discounting mechanisms that typically anticipate events up to six months in advance and adjust prices, a priori.
  • BTC statistics reveal that the months of Nov. / Dec. tend to be favorable for BTC, while January - March are less so; April - June tend to be recovery periods.
  • Those who disparage the value aspects of cryptocurrencies fail to recognize the value inherent in the Bitcoin PoW concept, where SHA256 hashing power is key to the integrity.
  • SHA256 vastly reduces the 51% attack risk inherent even in DPoS / PoS protocols. Bitcoin is based on a "trust-less" system that removes the middleman or third party.
  • Bitcoin removes the banking intermediary, eliminating wasteful fees while increasing efficiency, just as email is 100's of times less wasteful / costly than traditional snailmail.
  • The TCP/IP protocol remains the backbone of the internet, despite a myriad of solid competing alternatives, as the TCP/IP had first mover advantage and early adoption, similar to Bitcoin.
  • Satoshi Nakamoto and new developers defeated the Byzantine General problem, the consensus issue, by distributing the blockchain ledger among key, collaborative hash nodes.
  • Bitcoin detractors make the following points: coin mining is too costly, cannot be used to pay taxes and is an inadequate store of wealth.
  • The host counters: Arizona now accepts BTC for State tax payments, credit card company verification systems consume several fold the electricity of crypto mining.
  • At $7,000 per coin, BTC's price remains 600% higher than 12 months prior.
  • Traditional fiat money is doomed - the host coins a new crypto-battle cry: "Bitcoin is an unstoppable fiat money, computer virus."
  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his technical perspective on US shares, gold, silver indexes.
  • Our guest continues to monitor the technical condition of the PMs sector, noting the positive inverse golden cross.
  • Given the sharp advance in the gold, silver, commodities, XAU and WTIC , Arch Crawford is anticipating a new bull market, music to the ears of PMs aficionados.
  • Regarding US equities indexes, volatility was too low for too long - he expects a return to the mean resulting in a capitulation moment.
  • His account remains short equities since January 15th without margin. After the 3 day Easter / Passover weekend, stocks could rebound from lows.
  • The new $60 billion trade tariffs imposed by the Administration on China, suggests increased tensions between the US and China / N.K.
  • Should relations continue to deteriorate, the potential for military conflict may add a new twist to the geopolitical / financial arenas.
  • On the domestic economic front, the discussion veers to the hawkish FOMC rate hike strategy.
  • The current Fed Funds Futures (FFF) at the St. Louis FRED website indicates low odds of another rate hike at the upcoming May meeting.
  • Odds are high for June rate increase to 150-200 basis points (80% odds); about even odds of a final 2018 increase at the December meeting.
  • The threat of higher rates has rattled some perspective home buyers, resulting in higher SFH default rates and potentially ending the echo housing bubble (figure 1.1.).

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